Biden Still Holds Spot as Favorite to be Re-elected with Harris, Trump Improving
Joe Biden’s odds to be the Democratic Nominee in the 2024 U.S. Presidential Election have worsened from 2/1 (33.3% implied probability) to 9/4 (30.8%) since Friday, according to betting aggregators. Over the last two months, Kamala Harris improved from 2/1 (33.3%) to 3/2 (40%), making her the new sole favorite.
In the same timeframe, Donald Trump improved from 3/1 (25% implied probability) to 2/1 (33.3%) to be the Republican nominee. Ron DeSantis also improved from 6/1 (14.3%) to 9/2 (18.2%) during this time. While DeSantis improved in this market, his grip as the favorite to win the 2022 Florida Gubernatorial election is loosening, as his odds worsened from 1/5 (83.3%) to 1/3 (75%) in the past two months.
“The past two months have marked a difficult time for the Biden administration, and the odds reflect waning confidence in the current president securing his spot as the Democratic nominee, with the VP taking over as the favorite,” says a US-Bookies spokesperson. “However, Biden remains the favorite to win the 2024 election, suggesting book he may have a better chance than Harris against the Republican ticket.”
Trump’s odds to win the 2024 U.S. Presidential Election have improved from 8/1 (11.1% implied probability) to 13/2 (13.3%) in the last two months. He follows Harris, who improved from 4/1 (20%) to 7/2 (22.2%) and Biden, who improved from 4/1 (20%) to 10/3 (23.1%).
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“Though Trump hasn’t officially declared his 2024 bid, it looks increasingly likely that he will be the Republican nominee,” says a US-Bookies spokesperson. “While it’s significant for an undeclared candidate to be the favorite, his improving odds are likely a result of the current administration’s performance, as they come when Biden’s polling numbers are on the decline.”
Odds to Win 2024 U.S. Presidential Election:
| Current Odds | Odds on August 20, 2021 | Odds Two Months Ago | |
| Joe Biden | 10/3 (+333) | 10/3 (+333) | 4/1 (+400) |
| Kamala Harris | 7/2 (+350) | 7/2 (+350) | 4/1 (+400) |
| Donald Trump | 13/2 (+650) | 13/2 (+650) | 8/1 (+800) |
| Ron DeSantis | 10/1 (+1000) | 10/1 (+1000) | 10/1 (+1000) |
| Nikki Haley | 12/1 (+1200) | 12/1 (+1200) | 12/1 (+1200) |
| Mike Pence | 14/1 (+1400) | 14/1 (+1400) | 14/1 (+1400) |
| Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez | 16/1 (+1600) | 16/1 (+1600) | 16/1 (+1600) |
| Dwayne Johnson | 20/1 (+2000) | 20/1 (+2000) | 20/1 (+2000) |
| Jeff Bezos | 20/1 (+2000) | 20/1 (+2000) | 20/1 (+2000) |
| Tucker Carlson | 25/1 (+2500) | 25/1 (+2500) | 25/1 (+2500) |
Odds to Win Democratic Nomination 2024 U.S. Presidential Election:
| Current Odds | Odds on August 20, 2021 | Odds Two Months Ago | |
| Kamala Harris | 3/2 (+150) | 3/2 (+150) | 2/1 (+200) |
| Joe Biden | 9/4 (+225) | 2/1 (+200) | 2/1 (+200) |
| Pete Buttigieg | 12/1 (+1200) | 12/1 (+1200) | 12/1 (+1200) |
| Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez | 22/1 (+2200) | 22/1 (+2200) | 22/1 (+2200) |
| Elizabeth Warren | 22/1 (+2200) | 22/1 (+2200) | 22/1 (+2200) |
| Rashida Tlaib | 30/1 (+3000) | 30/1 (+3000) | 30/1 (+3000) |
| Ayanna Pressley | 33/1 (+3300) | 33/1 (+3300) | 33/1 (+3300) |
| Michelle Obama | 40/1 (+4000) | 40/1 (+4000) | 40/1 (+4000) |
| Nina Turner | 40/1 (+4000) | 40/1 (+4000) | 40/1 (+4000) |
| Meghan Markle | 50/1 (+5000) | 50/1 (+5000) | 50/1 (+5000) |
Odds to Win Republican Nomination 2024 U.S. Presidential Election:
| Current Odds | Odds on August 20, 2021 | Odds Two Months Ago | |
| Donald Trump | 2/1 (+200) | 2/1 (+200) | 3/1 (+300) |
| Ron DeSantis | 9/2 (+450) | 9/2 (+450) | 6/1 (+600) |
| Nikki Haley | 7/1 (+700) | 7/1 (+700) | 7/1 (+700) |
| Mike Pence | 12/1 (+1200) | 12/1 (+1200) | 12/1 (+1200) |
| Ted Cruz | 14/1 (+1400) | 14/1 (+1400) | 14/1 (+1400) |
| Mike Pompeo | 20/1 (+2000) | 20/1 (+2000) | 20/1 (+2000) |
| Tucker Carlson | 20/1 (+2000) | 20/1 (+2000) | 20/1 (+2000) |
| Tom Cotton | 20/1 (+2000) | 20/1 (+2000) | 20/1 (+2000) |
| Kristi Noem | 25/1 (+2500) | 25/1 (+2500) | 25/1 (+2500) |
| Ivanka Trump | 25/1 (+2500) | 25/1 (+2500) | 25/1 (+2500) |
Odds to Win 2022 Florida Gubernatorial Election:
| Current Odds | Odds Two Months Ago | |
| Ron DeSantis | 1/3 (-300) | 1/5 (-500) |
| Charlie Crist | 4/ 1 (+400) | 8/1 (+800) |
| Nikki Fried | 8/1 (+800) | 10/1 (+1000) |
| Val Demings | 100/1 (+10000) | 100/1 (+10000) |
Disclaimer: The odds posted in this article are for illustrative purposes only, as wagering on such props is not currently legal in any U.S. state. The data was based on betting markets offered by UK/European/worldwide operators regulated in jurisdictions where wagering on these props is legal.
