The new MLB season started on March 19 and will last until September. Learn how to bet on baseball by reading this guide.
“America’s greatest pastime” is what you always hear about baseball. Well, it’s gotten even better now that it’s finally legal to make sports bets in a lot of states.
America has caught up with the rest of the world, as far as sports betting is concerned, but how do you make a smart bet on one of the oldest American sports, baseball?
Find information on how to read odds in general here, otherwise, you will find all the baseball-specific info below.
Moneyline Odds
There are 3 different ways to represent MLB odds, decimal, fractional, and the most popular way in the US, moneyline odds. In baseball, being America’s favorite sport (or maybe that’s football, learn how to read football odds), we will focus on using Moneyline odds, also referred to as American odds. We’ll break them down for you here. Some Moneyline odds for a baseball game that you might see look like:
| Phillies | +180 |
| Yankees | -130 |
Positive odds are the winnings you’d get if you bet $100. Negative odds are what you need to bet to get $100.
In our hypothetical odds example, if you put $100 down on the Phillies, your return would be $180 if they did indeed win. Alternatively, if you bet $130 on the Yankees, $100 is what you’d get if they win this particular matchup. The bookies think the Yankees will win against the Phillies, therefore, you’re getting less in return (in this odds example, anyway). Always remember that smart betting isn’t always about going for the biggest odds difference, it’s about making smart, consistent, winning bets over time.
So, considering that point in the above example odds, the bookies have the Phillies slated to lose and so you’d stand to get a bigger payout if they win. However, only bet on the Phillies if you have good evidence that the sportsbook have gotten it wrong. Otherwise, take the ‘safer’ bet of betting on the Yankees.
Point Spread in Baseball Betting – Run Line
The Run Line Bet is a popular form of wagering in baseball that functions similarly to a point spread in other sports. It typically features a fixed spread of 1.5 runs, where bettors must decide if the favorite will win by more than 1 run or if the underdog will lose by less than 1 run or win outright. This betting type adds an extra layer of strategy and excitement, making even the most lopsided matchups more engaging for bettors.
We’re going to use our last example of the Phillies vs the Yankees.
| Phillies | +180 | +1.5 |
| Yankees | -130 | –1.5 |
In this run line wager, if you want to bet on the Yankees, they would need to beat the Phillies by more than 1 runs for you to have a winning wager. However, if you went with the Phillies in this scenario, you’ll win as long as the Phillies are within 2 runs of the Yankees; the Phillies don’t even have to win, just be within the point spread. So the final score could be Yankees 2 – Phillies 1 and your Phillies +1.5 bet would win.
Point spreading in baseball adds a lot of complexity but if you’re smart, you can find great odds and huge payouts. For instance, perhaps a team is resting its best pitcher against a team with a lot of heavy hitters and you expect a big point difference. It would be good to shop around at various bookmakers to find the best odds on a baseball point spread bet.
Baseball Over/Under Bets
One more popular type of baseball betting is called the over/under bet, it’s pretty straightforward. For over/under betting, you wager on the total points in a contest. It doesn’t matter who wins or loses.
Let’s say both teams in a contest have homerun hitters and pitchers that throw right down the pipe. From your research, you think both teams are looking sharp and that this will be a high-scoring game. You can look for MLB odds that say this game will have at least 14 points when you consider the final score of both teams. If you make this bet, you’ll win if the final score is at least 14 points. If the homerun hitters have an off game and the score ends up being 14 or less, you’ll lose the wager.
It’s important to mention that different bookies might favor different types of odds. Before you sign up at an online sportsbook, do some research about which games they cover and the kinds of odds that are available. Don’t be hasty making a decision, you’re going to be putting your money there after all.
World Series – Futures Odds
Futures odds are a long-term wagering option that allows bettors to place bets on outcomes that will be determined well in the future, typically by the end of the MLB season. These bets can be placed on various outcomes such as which team will win the World Series, who will clinch their division titles, or which players will earn prestigious awards like MVP, Cy Young, or Rookie of the Year.
Because futures odds are set far in advance and involve predicting long-term performance, they often offer substantial payouts, making them an enticing option for those willing to take a calculated risk.
These are current FanDuel odds for the World Series winner.
| Teams | Odds |
|---|---|
| Los Angeles Dodgers | +300 |
| Philadelphia Phillies | +470 |
| New York Yankees | +550 |
| Baltimore Orioles | +700 |
| Atlanta Braves | +900 |
| Cleveland Guardians | +1800 |
The First Five Innings (F5) Bet
This is a unique option in baseball betting that focuses solely on the initial half of a game. Unlike traditional bets that consider the entire nine innings, F5 bets allow bettors to wager on outcomes like the moneyline, total runs, or the run line, but only based on the performance of the first five innings.
This type of bet is particularly appealing for those who want to minimize the impact of bullpen performance and focus more on the starting pitchers’ duel. By concentrating on the early part of the game, F5 bets offer a strategic edge and provide a quicker resolution to your wager.
Series Bets
This is another type of bet unique to baseball. It allows bettors to wager on the outcome of a series of games between two teams, rather than a single game. Typically, these series span three or four games, and the objective is to predict which team will win the majority of the matchups within the series.
One of the key advantages of series bets is the extra layer of security they provide; even if your favored team loses one game, they can still win the series and secure your wager. Four-game series generally present the lowest sweep probabilities, usually around 15%.
This indicates that even strong teams might struggle to secure a sweep over a longer series due to factors like bullpen fatigue and variability in performance. Considering this data, bettors should exercise caution when betting on individual games within a four-game series.
Given the lower likelihood of sweeps, placing bets on the series winner as a whole may be more advantageous than on individual games.
To further illustrate these insights, the chart below captures the percentage of MLB series that concluded with a sweep over the last four seasons. Notably, the anomaly in 2023, where fewer than 10% of the four-game series ended in sweeps, contrasts with the current season (2024) where the percentage has risen to above 16%.
Prop Bets
It focuses on specific occurrences or performances within a baseball game, rather than the game’s overall outcome. These bets can range from individual player statistics – such as the number of strikeouts a pitcher will have, home runs hit by a batter, or total bases accumulated – to team-specific events like the number of runs scored in a particular inning or the first team to score. Prop bets add an extra layer of engagement and fun to MLB betting, enabling bettors to capitalize on their knowledge of specific players and game scenarios.
Total Bases and Team Total Bets
Total Bases Bets involve wagering on the cumulative number of bases a player will accumulate in a game through hits, including singles, doubles, triples, and home runs. This bet type is ideal for those who closely follow individual player performance and can leverage insights into a player’s form and matchup potential.
On the other hand, Team Total Bets focus on the collective performance of a team, allowing bettors to wager on the total number of runs a team will score over the course of a game. These bets are useful when you have confidence in a team’s offensive capabilities but prefer not to predict the game’s overall outcome.
Grand Salami Bet
The Grand Salami bet allows bettors to place a bet on the total number of runs scored across all games played on a given day. Instead of focusing on a single game or series, the Grand Salami aggregates the potential outcomes of multiple contests into one overarching bet.
This type of bet is particularly appealing for those who enjoy tracking multiple games simultaneously and have a broad understanding of league trends and team performances.
To place a Grand Salami bet, sportsbooks will set an over/under line for the combined total runs of all scheduled games for that day. Bettors then wager on whether the actual total of runs scored will be over or under the set line.
