Republican Sweep of House, Senate, White House Grows More Likely

–Political Betting Odds for 2022 Midterms and 2024 Election Spell Bad News for Democrats–

Donald Trump’s odds to win the 2024 U.S. Presidential Election continue to improve, according to betting aggregators US-Bookies.com (See Disclaimer Below). Since mid-October, Trump’s odds to be re-elected in 2024 have shifted from 7/2 (22.2% implied probability) to 3/1 (25%). 

“Donald Trump has gradually made his way to the top of the political betting markets, while the top Democratic challengers’ odds to win have weakened,” says a US-Bookies spokesperson. “Along with Trump’s positive movement, Ron DeSantis has also seen improvements in the presidential betting markets, making a Republican win seem more likely.”

Donald Trump has gradually made his way to the top of the political betting markets, while the top Democratic challengers’ odds to win have weakened.

-US Bookies spokesperson

Joe Biden’s odds to be re-elected in 2024 have worsened from 4/1 (20% implied probability) to 5/1 (16.7%) since mid-October. During the same time, Kamala Harris’ odds also worsened from 11/2 (15.4%) to 13/2 (13.3%). Ron DeSantis’ odds improved from 11/1 (8.3%) to 8/1 (11.1%).

Pete Buttigieg is the only Democrat whose odds have gradually improved since last month. His odds to win the 2024 Presidential Election shifted from 40/1 (2.4% implied probability) to 28/1 (3.4%) since October 6. Buttigieg now follows Mike Pence, whose odds worsened from 16/1 (5.9%) to 25/1 (3.8%) in the same timeframe. Pence follows Nikki Haley, whose odds also worsened from 12/1 (7.7%) to 18/1 (5.3%). 

“On top of the bookies’ eyeing Republicans to take back the white house, the odds also predict that the GOP will also win majority control of Congress,” says a US-Bookies spokesperson. “Already the favorites to take the House and Senate, the Republicans’ odds have further improved through November.”

Since November 5, Republicans’ odds to win majority control of Senate the improved slightly from 9/20 (69% implied probability) to 4/9 (69.2%). Democrats’ odds worsened from 15/8 (34.8%) to 21/10 (32.3%). As for the U.S. House of Representatives, Republicans’ odds to win majority control after the 2022 Midterms improved from 2/9 (81.8%) to 1/5 (83.3%), while Democrats’ worsened from 18/5 (21.7%) to 19/5 (20.8%). 

Odds to Win 2024 U.S. Presidential Election:

Odds on November 29Odds on October 14Odds on October 6Odds on September 8Odds on August 25Odds on July 8
Donald Trump 3/1 (+300)7/2 (+350)13/2 (+650)13/2 (+650)13/2 (+650)8/1 (+800)
Joe Biden5/1 (+500)4/1 (+400)4/1 (+400)4/1 (+400)10/3 (+333)4/1 (+400)
Kamala Harris13/2 (+750)11/2 (+550)7/2 (+350)5/1 (+500)7/2 (+350)4/1 (+400)
Ron DeSantis8/1 (+800)11/1 (+1100)11/1 (+1100)11/1 (+1100)10/1 (+1000)10/1 (+1000)
Nikki Haley18/1 (+1800)18/1 (+1800)12/1 (+1200)12/1 (+1200)12/1 (+1200)12/1 (+1200)
Mike Pence25/1 (+2500)16/1 (+1600)16/1 (+1600)16/1 (+1600)14/1 (+1400)14/1 (+1400)
Pete Buttigieg28/1 (+2800)33/1 (+3300)40/1 (+4000)N/AN/AN/A
Elise Stefanik40/1 (+4000)25/1 (+2500)25/1 (+2500)N/AN/AN/A
Dwayne Johnson40/1 (+4000)33/1 (+3300)20/1 (+2000)20/1 (+2000)20/1 (+2000)20/1 (+2000)
Mike Pompeo40/1 (+4000)50/1 (+5000)40/1 (+4000)N/AN/AN/A

Odds to Win Majority Control of the Senate After 2022 Midterms: 

Odds on November 29Odds on November 5Odds on October 14
Republicans4/9 (-225)9/20 (-222)5/6 (-120)
Democrats21/10 (+210)15/8 (+188)21/20 (+105)

Odds to Win Majority Control of the House of Representatives After 2022 Midterms: 

Odds on November 29Odds on November 5Odds on October 14
Republicans1/5 (-500)2/9 (-450)2/5 (-250)
Democrats19/5 (+280)18/5 (+360)2/1 (+200)

Disclaimer: The odds posted in this article are for illustrative purposes only, as wagering on such props is not currently legal in any U.S. state. The data was based on betting markets offered by UK/European/worldwide operators regulated in jurisdictions where wagering on these props is legal.


–Political Betting Analysts Say Republican Control is More Likely Than it Was Before NJ, Virginia Election–

Republicans’ odds to win majority control of the U.S. House of Representatives and Senate following 2022 Midterms have improved, according to betting aggregators US-Bookies.com (See Disclaimer Below). Since mid-October, the GOP’s odds to win the House of Representatives shifted from 2/5 (71.4% implied probability) to 2/9 (81.8%), while their odds to win the Senate also shifted from 5/6 (54.5%) to 9/20 (69%). 

“The recent gubernatorial elections in New Jersey and Virginia have shown once again that pollsters underestimated Republican voters,” says a US-Bookies spokesperson. “Following the results of these elections, it’s not surprising to see the bookies grow more confident in the GOP winning majority control of Congress in 2022.”

Democrats’ odds to secure the majority in the House and Senate have worsened. Their odds to have majority control of the House have shifted from 2/1 (33.3% implied probability) to 18/5 (21.7%), while their Senate odds have also weakened from 21/20 (48.8%) to 15/8 (34.8%). These shifts occurred weeks after Donald Trump became the favorite to win the 2024 U.S. Presidential election.  

“With a string of poor approval ratings for the Biden administration, the Republicans’ odds improved to the point that bookies favored them to win control of Congress,” says a US-Bookies spokesperson. “And with Donald Trump being the favorite  to win in 2024, the odds are now predicting a clean sweep for the GOP.”

Odds to Win Majority Control of the Senate After 2022 Midterms (parentheses indicate odds on October 14):

Republicans: 9/20 (5/6)

Democrats: 15/8 (21/20)

Odds to Win Majority Control of the House of Representatives After 2022 Midterms (parentheses indicate odds on October 14):

Republicans: 2/9 (2/5)
Democrats: 18/5 (2/1)

Disclaimer: The odds posted in this article are for illustrative purposes only, as wagering on such props is not currently legal in any U.S. state. The data was based on betting markets offered by UK/European/worldwide operators regulated in jurisdictions where wagering on these props is legal.

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