Three Trump-backed Candidates’ Election Odds Worsen

–Herschel Walker’s Senate Odds See Significant Improvement Since February–

Three candidates endorsed by Donald Trump saw negative changes in their odds to win their respective elections, according to betting aggregators US-Bookies.com (See Disclaimer Below). Ted Budd’s odds to win the U.S. Senate Election in North Carolina worsened from 4/7 (63.6% implied probability) to 1/1 (50%). Mo Brooks’ odds to win the Senate Election in Alabama worsened from 5/4 (44.4%) to 2/1 (33.3%). David Perdue’s odds to win the Georgia Gubernatorial election worsened from 7/10 (58.8%) to 2/1 (33.3%). 

“Most candidates endorsed by Donald Trump are heavily favored to win, but Ted Budd, Mo Brooks and David Perdue were among the only Trump-backed candidates to see their odds worsen since mid-February,” says a US-Bookies spokesperson. “Whereas Budd is still the favorite to win in North Carolina, Brooks and Perdue have lost their status as favorites.” 

Katie Britt is now the 11/8 favorite to win the U.S. Senate seat in Alabama (42.1% implied probability) over Mo Brooks. Brian Kemp is now the 6/4 favorite to win the Georgia Gubernatorial election (40%) over David Perdue. Pat McCrory still trails Ted Budd at 8/5 to win the Senate election in North Carolina (38.5%).  

“Recent comments have placed Herschel Walker in a bigger spotlight, but the controversy has not halted the former NFL star’s surge in betting odds,” says a US-Bookies spokesperson. “In fact, Walker’s odds improved significantly since last month, and he’s among the strongest favorites endorsed by Donald Trump, alongside Ron Johnson and Chuck Grassley.”

Herschel Walker improved from 1/3 (75%) to 1/20 (95.2%) to win the Senate seat in Georgia. Ron Johnson’s odds to win the U.S. Senate election in Wyoming improved from 1/10 (90.9% implied probability) to 1/33 (97.1%) since last month. Chuck Grassley’s odds to win the Senate election in Iowa improved from 1/5 (83.3%) to 1/20 (95.2%). 

“Trump-backed candidates have made significant momentum in the Idaho and Massachusetts governor elections,” says a US-Bookies spokesperson. “Janice McGeachin is now the odds-on favorite to win in Idaho, and Geoff Diehl is very close behind Maura Healey to win in Massachusetts.”

2022 Midterm Election Odds (Parentheses indicate odds on February 16): 

House Election in Wyoming
Harriet Hageman*: 1/3
Liz Cheney: 4/1
Senate Election in Iowa
Chuck Grassley*: 1/20 (1/5)
Jim Carlin: 10/1

Abby Finkenauer: 20/1
Mike Franken: 25/1
Glen Hurst: 33/1
Bob Krause: 40/1
Senate Election in Georgia
Herschel Walker*: 1/20 (1/3)
Raphael Warnock: 4/1
Gary Black: 12/1
Josh Clark: 20/1
Jared Craig: 20/1
Kelvin King: 33/1
James Nestor: 33/1
Latham Saddler: 12/1
Senate Election in Wisconsin
Ron Johnson*: 1/33 (1/10)
Senate Election in Nevada
Adam Laxalt*: 1/3 (7/20)
Sam Brown: 11/4

Catherine Cortez Masto: 5/1
William Hockstedler: 20/1
Sharelle Mendenhall: 25/1
Senate Election in North Carolina
Ted Budd*: 1/1 (4/7)
Pat McCrory: 8/5
Mark Walker: 33/1
Senate Election in Alabama
Katie Britt: 11/8
Mo Brooks*: 2/1 (5/4)
Michael Durant: 9/2
Karla DuPriest: 20/1
Jake Schafer: 25/1

Will Boyd: 33/1
Bandaun Dean: 40/1
Lanny Jackson: 40/1
Texas Gubernatorial Election
Greg Abbott*: 1/10 (1/5)
Beto O’Rourke: 9/1
Allen West: 16/1
Daniel Harrison: 25/1
Kandy Kaye Horn: 30/1
Paul Belew: 33/1
Donald Huffines: 40/1
Rick Perry: 40/1

Joy Diaz: 40/1
Rich Wakeland: 40/1

Chad Prather: 50/1
Inocencio Barrientez: 50/1
Michael Cooper: 50/1
Georgia Gubernatorial Election
Brian Kemp: 6/4
David Perdue*: 2/1 (7/10)

Stacey Abrams: 3/1
Vernon Jones: 12/1
Kandiss Taylor: 50/1
Jonathan Garcia: 100/1
Arizona Gubernatorial Election
Kari Lake*: 1/2
Matt Salmon: 3/1
Steve Gaynor: 16/1
Karrin Taylor Robson: 20/1

Katie Hobbs: 20/1
Marco Lopez: 25/1
Aaron Lieberman: 30/1
Idaho Gubernatorial Election
Janice McGeachin*: 1/6 (2/1)
Brad Little: 7/10
Ammon Bundy: 12/1
Steve Bradshaw: 20/1
Ed Humphreys: 25/1

Shelby Rognstad: 40/1
Massachusetts Gubernatorial Election
Maura Healey: 1/4
Geoff Diehl*: 1/3 (10/1)
Sonia Chang-Diaz: 14/1
Chris Doughty: 20/1
Danielle Allen: 33/1

Red = Republican
Blue = Democrat
* = Endorsed by Donald Trump

Disclaimer: The odds posted in this article are for illustrative purposes only, as wagering on such props is not currently legal in any U.S. state. The data was based on betting markets offered by UK/European/worldwide operators regulated in jurisdictions where wagering on these props is legal.

–Most of Trump’s Endorsed Candidates Are Expected to Win–

Several candidates endorsed by Donald Trump hold the best odds to win their respective elections, according to betting aggregators US-Bookies.com (See Disclaimer Below). Of these endorsements, Ron Johnson has the strongest odds to win, as he’s the 1/10 favorite to win the U.S. Senate Election in Wisconsin (90.9% implied probability).  

“Control of congress will likely come down to a few key races during the 2022 Midterm Elections, and it looks like Donald Trump’s endorsement will be a significant factor in securing Republican control,”  says a US-Bookies spokesperson. “Most Trump-endorsed candidates are odds-on favorites to win, with some of the only exceptions being gubernatorial candidates.” 

Chuck Grassley is the 1/5 favorite to win the U.S. Senate Election in Iowa (83.3% implied probability). His nearest competitor is fellow Republican Jim Carlin, who is a distant 10/1 to win (9.1%). Abby Finkenauer is the top Democrat, but her 20/1 odds to win (4.8%) put her well behind Grassley. 

Longtime Trump friend Herschel Walker is the odds-on favorite to take the Georgia Senate seat. At 1/3 (75% implied probability), the former football star holds the strongest odds to win. He’s followed by incumbent Raphael Warnock at 4/1 (20%). 

“Liz Cheney’s story proves that not only does Trump’s endorsement usually help Republicans win elections, but that speaking against the former president also comes with grim results,” says a US-Bookies spokesperson. “Cheney now holds 4/1 to be re-elected to her seat in the House of Representatives, with Trump-endorsed Harriet Hageman being the odds-on 1/3 favorite.”  

Adam Laxalt is the odds-on favorite to win the Senate election in Nevada, holding 7/20 odds (74.1% implied probability). He holds a noticeable lead over fellow Republican Sam Brown at 11/4 (26.7%) and incumbent Democrat Catherine Cortez Masto at 5/1 (16.7%). 

With 4/7 odds, Ted Budd is the odds-on favorite to win the Senate seat in North Carolina (63.6% implied probability). His nearest competitor is Pat McCrory at 8/5 (38.5%). 

“Of the Congressional candidates endorsed by Trump who are favorites to win their respective elections, Mo Brooks has the worst odds,” says a US-Bookies spokesperson. “Brooks’ 5/4 odds to win are the best among all candidates, but fellow Republican Katie Britt is very close behind at 11/8.” 

2022 Midterm Election Odds:

House Election in Wyoming
Harriet Hageman*: 1/3
Liz Cheney: 4/1
Senate Election in Iowa
Chuck Grassley*: 1/5
Jim Carlin: 10/1

Abby Finkenauer: 20/1
Mike Franken: 25/1
Glen Hurst: 33/1
Bob Krause: 40/1
Senate Election in Georgia
Herschel Walker*: 1/3
Raphael Warnock: 4/1
Gary Black: 12/1
Josh Clark: 20/1
Jared Craig: 20/1
Kelvin King: 33/1
James Nestor: 33/1
Latham Saddler: 12/1
Senate Election in Wisconsin
Ron Johnson*: 1/10
Senate Election in Nevada
Adam Laxalt*: 7/20
Sam Brown: 11/4

Catherine Cortez Masto: 5/1
William Hockstedler: 20/1
Sharelle Mendenhall: 25/1
Senate Election in North Carolina
Ted Budd*: 4/7
Pat McCrory: 8/5
Mark Walker: 33/1
Senate Election in Alabama
Mo Brooks*: 5/4
Katie Britt: 11/8
Michael Durant: 9/2
Karla DuPriest: 20/1
Jake Schafer: 25/1

Will Boyd: 33/1
Bandaun Dean: 40/1
Lanny Jackson: 40/1
Texas Gubernatorial Election
Greg Abbott*: 1/5
Beto O’Rourke: 9/1
Allen West: 16/1
Daniel Harrison: 25/1
Kandy Kaye Horn: 30/1
Paul Belew: 33/1
Donald Huffines: 40/1
Rick Perry: 40/1

Joy Diaz: 40/1
Rich Wakeland: 40/1

Chad Prather: 50/1
Inocencio Barrientez: 50/1
Michael Cooper: 50/1
Georgia Gubernatorial Election
David Perdue*: 7/10
Brian Kemp: 6/4

Stacey Abrams: 3/1
Vernon Jones: 12/1
Kandiss Taylor: 50/1
Jonathan Garcia: 100/1
Arizona Gubernatorial Election
Kari Lake*: 1/2
Matt Salmon: 3/1
Steve Gaynor: 16/1
Karrin Taylor Robson: 20/1

Katie Hobbs: 20/1
Marco Lopez: 25/1
Aaron Lieberman: 30/1
Idaho Gubernatorial Election
Brad Little: 7/10
Janice McGeachin*: 2/1
Ammon Bundy: 12/1
Steve Bradshaw: 20/1
Ed Humphreys: 25/1

Shelby Rognstad: 40/1
Massachusetts Gubernatorial Election
Maura Healey: 1/4
Geoff Diehl*: 10/1
Sonia Chang-Diaz: 14/1
Chris Doughty: 20/1Danielle Allen: 33/1

Red = Republican
Blue = Democrat
* = Endorsed by Donald Trump

Disclaimer: The odds posted in this article are for illustrative purposes only, as wagering on such props is not currently legal in any U.S. state. The data was based on betting markets offered by UK/European/worldwide operators regulated in jurisdictions where wagering on these props is legal.

–Republicans’ Odds to Control House, Senate, White House Improve Since Last Year–

Since the beginning of Joe Biden’s presidential term, Democrats’ odds to win control of Congress after the 2022 Midterms have worsened, according to betting aggregators US-Bookies.com (See Disclaimer Below). Democrats odds to win majority of the U.S. Senate have worsened from 21/10 (32.3% implied probability) to 9/4 (30.8%) since Inauguration Day, and their odds to win majority of the House of Representatives worsened from 2/1 (33.3%) to 4/1 (20%). 

During Biden and Kamala Harris’ first year in office, Republicans odds to win majority control of Congress strengthened. Republican odds to control the Senate after 2022 Midterms are now 2/5 (71.4% implied probability), improving from 4/9 (69.2%) since January 20, 2021. Republicans odds to win majority control of the House also improved from 4/11 (73.3%) to 1/5 (83.3%). 

“Following the first year of the Biden-Harris administration, Democrats are less likely to win enough seats in the Midterms to control Congress,”  says a US-Bookies spokesperson. “The Republicans’ odds have followed the opposite path, as the GOP are even more likely to see a clean sweep of the House and Senate after Midterms, as well as the White House in 2024.” 

Democrats are less likely to win enough seats in the Midterms to control congress

-US Bookies

Since Joe Biden’s Inauguration, Donald Trump’s odds to win the 2024 U.S. Presidential Election have improved. He’s now the 3/1 (25% implied probability) favorite after improving from 10/1 (9.1%) since last year. At the same time, Biden’s odds worsened from 4/1 (20%) to 9/2 (18.2%), while Harris’ also worsened from 4/1 (20%) to 7/1 (12.5%). 

“Along with Trump, Ron DeSantis also noticed strong positive movement in the 2024 Presidential Election betting markets, as he currently holds the fourth-best odds,” says a US-Bookies spokesperson. “The year hasn’t been as good for leading Democrats, and it seems that Harris has taken more of a hit than Biden.”  

Odds to Hold Majority Control of U.S. Senate after 2022 Midterms:

January 12, 2022January 20, 2021
Republicans2/54/9
Democrats9/421/10

Odds to Hold Majority Control of U.S. House of Representatives after 2022 Midterms:

January 12, 2022January 20, 2021
Republicans1/54/11
Democrats4/12/1

Odds to win 2024 U.S. Presidential Election: 

January 7, 2022January 20, 2021
Donald Trump3/110/1
Joe Biden9/24/1
Kamala Harris7/14/1
Ron DeSantis8/166/1
Nikki Haley20/116/1
Pete Buttigieg 20/150/1
Mike Pence25/112/1

Disclaimer: The odds posted in this article are for illustrative purposes only, as wagering on such props is not currently legal in any U.S. state. The data was based on betting markets offered by UK/European/worldwide operators regulated in jurisdictions where wagering on these props is legal.


–Political Betting Odds for 2022 Midterms and 2024 Election Spell Bad News for Democrats–

Donald Trump’s odds to win the 2024 U.S. Presidential Election continue to improve, according to betting aggregators US-Bookies.com (See Disclaimer Below). Since mid-October, Trump’s odds to be re-elected in 2024 have shifted from 7/2 (22.2% implied probability) to 3/1 (25%). 

“Donald Trump has gradually made his way to the top of the political betting markets, while the top Democratic challengers’ odds to win have weakened,” says a US-Bookies spokesperson. “Along with Trump’s positive movement, Ron DeSantis has also seen improvements in the presidential betting markets, making a Republican win seem more likely.”

Donald Trump has gradually made his way to the top of the political betting markets, while the top Democratic challengers’ odds to win have weakened.

-US Bookies spokesperson

Joe Biden’s odds to be re-elected in 2024 have worsened from 4/1 (20% implied probability) to 5/1 (16.7%) since mid-October. During the same time, Kamala Harris’ odds also worsened from 11/2 (15.4%) to 13/2 (13.3%). Ron DeSantis’ odds improved from 11/1 (8.3%) to 8/1 (11.1%).

Pete Buttigieg is the only Democrat whose odds have gradually improved since last month. His odds to win the 2024 Presidential Election shifted from 40/1 (2.4% implied probability) to 28/1 (3.4%) since October 6. Buttigieg now follows Mike Pence, whose odds worsened from 16/1 (5.9%) to 25/1 (3.8%) in the same timeframe. Pence follows Nikki Haley, whose odds also worsened from 12/1 (7.7%) to 18/1 (5.3%). 

“On top of the bookies’ eyeing Republicans to take back the white house, the odds also predict that the GOP will also win majority control of Congress,” says a US-Bookies spokesperson. “Already the favorites to take the House and Senate, the Republicans’ odds have further improved through November.”

Since November 5, Republicans’ odds to win majority control of Senate the improved slightly from 9/20 (69% implied probability) to 4/9 (69.2%). Democrats’ odds worsened from 15/8 (34.8%) to 21/10 (32.3%). As for the U.S. House of Representatives, Republicans’ odds to win majority control after the 2022 Midterms improved from 2/9 (81.8%) to 1/5 (83.3%), while Democrats’ worsened from 18/5 (21.7%) to 19/5 (20.8%). 

Odds to Win 2024 U.S. Presidential Election:

Odds on November 29Odds on October 14Odds on October 6Odds on September 8Odds on August 25Odds on July 8
Donald Trump 3/1 (+300)7/2 (+350)13/2 (+650)13/2 (+650)13/2 (+650)8/1 (+800)
Joe Biden5/1 (+500)4/1 (+400)4/1 (+400)4/1 (+400)10/3 (+333)4/1 (+400)
Kamala Harris13/2 (+750)11/2 (+550)7/2 (+350)5/1 (+500)7/2 (+350)4/1 (+400)
Ron DeSantis8/1 (+800)11/1 (+1100)11/1 (+1100)11/1 (+1100)10/1 (+1000)10/1 (+1000)
Nikki Haley18/1 (+1800)18/1 (+1800)12/1 (+1200)12/1 (+1200)12/1 (+1200)12/1 (+1200)
Mike Pence25/1 (+2500)16/1 (+1600)16/1 (+1600)16/1 (+1600)14/1 (+1400)14/1 (+1400)
Pete Buttigieg28/1 (+2800)33/1 (+3300)40/1 (+4000)N/AN/AN/A
Elise Stefanik40/1 (+4000)25/1 (+2500)25/1 (+2500)N/AN/AN/A
Dwayne Johnson40/1 (+4000)33/1 (+3300)20/1 (+2000)20/1 (+2000)20/1 (+2000)20/1 (+2000)
Mike Pompeo40/1 (+4000)50/1 (+5000)40/1 (+4000)N/AN/AN/A

Odds to Win Majority Control of the Senate After 2022 Midterms: 

Odds on November 29Odds on November 5Odds on October 14
Republicans4/9 (-225)9/20 (-222)5/6 (-120)
Democrats21/10 (+210)15/8 (+188)21/20 (+105)

Odds to Win Majority Control of the House of Representatives After 2022 Midterms: 

Odds on November 29Odds on November 5Odds on October 14
Republicans1/5 (-500)2/9 (-450)2/5 (-250)
Democrats19/5 (+280)18/5 (+360)2/1 (+200)

Disclaimer: The odds posted in this article are for illustrative purposes only, as wagering on such props is not currently legal in any U.S. state. The data was based on betting markets offered by UK/European/worldwide operators regulated in jurisdictions where wagering on these props is legal.


–Political Betting Analysts Say Republican Control is More Likely Than it Was Before NJ, Virginia Election–

Republicans’ odds to win majority control of the U.S. House of Representatives and Senate following 2022 Midterms have improved, according to betting aggregators US-Bookies.com (See Disclaimer Below). Since mid-October, the GOP’s odds to win the House of Representatives shifted from 2/5 (71.4% implied probability) to 2/9 (81.8%), while their odds to win the Senate also shifted from 5/6 (54.5%) to 9/20 (69%). 

“The recent gubernatorial elections in New Jersey and Virginia have shown once again that pollsters underestimated Republican voters,” says a US-Bookies spokesperson. “Following the results of these elections, it’s not surprising to see the bookies grow more confident in the GOP winning majority control of Congress in 2022.”

Democrats’ odds to secure the majority in the House and Senate have worsened. Their odds to have majority control of the House have shifted from 2/1 (33.3% implied probability) to 18/5 (21.7%), while their Senate odds have also weakened from 21/20 (48.8%) to 15/8 (34.8%). These shifts occurred weeks after Donald Trump became the favorite to win the 2024 U.S. Presidential election.  

“With a string of poor approval ratings for the Biden administration, the Republicans’ odds improved to the point that bookies favored them to win control of Congress,” says a US-Bookies spokesperson. “And with Donald Trump being the favorite  to win in 2024, the odds are now predicting a clean sweep for the GOP.”

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Odds to Win Majority Control of the Senate After 2022 Midterms (parentheses indicate odds on October 14):

Republicans: 9/20 (5/6)

Democrats: 15/8 (21/20)

Odds to Win Majority Control of the House of Representatives After 2022 Midterms (parentheses indicate odds on October 14):

Republicans: 2/9 (2/5)
Democrats: 18/5 (2/1)

Disclaimer: The odds posted in this article are for illustrative purposes only, as wagering on such props is not currently legal in any U.S. state. The data was based on betting markets offered by UK/European/worldwide operators regulated in jurisdictions where wagering on these props is legal.

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