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Recent Shifts in Betting Odds Bring Good News for Democrats

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–Dems’ Midterm Odds Improve While Presidential Odds Remain Unchanged–

The Democrats’ odds to win majority control of the U.S. House of Representatives and Senate have improved slightly since the end of February, according to betting aggregators US-Bookies.com (See Disclaimer Below). Over the past two weeks, Democrats’ odds of winning the Senate improved from 13/2 (13.3% implied probability) to 3/1 (25%), and their odds to win the House also improved from 11/2 (15.4%) to 9/2 (18.2%).  

Republicans’ odds to win majority control of the U.S. Senate improved from 4/11 (73.3% implied probability) to 1/3 (75%) since February 28. The GOP’s odds to win the House of Representatives also improved from 2/13 (86.7%) to 1/7 (87.5%). 

“Since the start of Joe Biden’s presidential term, Democrats’ midterm odds have been worsening, but the trend has reversed in the weeks following the Ukraine invasion and Biden’s State of the Union,” says a US-Bookies spokesperson. “While the Republicans’ odds also improved since the end of last month, Democrats’ shifts were more noticeable.”

Since the start of Biden’s presidential term, Democrats’ midterm odds have been worsening

US-Bookies

Joe Biden’s odds to win the 2024 U.S. Presidential Election and the Democratic Nomination have not changed since February. His odds to be re-elected remain at 5/1 (16.7% implied probability), and he’s still the 2/1 favorite to be the Democratic nominee (33.3%). Similarly, Donald Trump is still the favorite to win the 2024 election, as his odds haven’t changed from 11/4 (26.7% implied probability). Trump is also the 1/1 favorite to be the Republican nominee (50%).

“The combination of improving Midterm odds and unchanged presidential odds should be a good sign for Democrats, as they’ve been battling negatively trending polls since the start of Biden’s term,” says a US-Bookies spokesperson. “Democrats still have a long way to go to catch up with the GOP, but these recent shifts indicate that the negative momentum has at least stopped for now.” 

Odds to Hold Majority Control of U.S. Senate after 2022 Midterms:

March 14, 2022February 28, 2022January 12, 2022January 20, 2021
Republicans1/34/112/54/9
Democrats3/113/29/421/10

Odds to Hold Majority Control of U.S. House of Representatives after 2022 Midterms:

March 14, 2022February 28, 2022January 12, 2022January 20, 2021
Republicans1/72/131/54/11
Democrats9/211/24/12/1

Odds to win 2024 U.S. Presidential Election: 

March 14, 2022February 25, 2022January 31, 2022January 7, 2022January 20, 2021
Donald Trump11/4 (+275)11/4 (+275)3/1 (+300)3/1 (+300)10/1 (+1000)
Joe Biden5/1 (+500)5/1 (+500)9/2 (+450)9/2 (+450)4/1 (+400)
Ron DeSantis6/1 (+600)6/1 (+600)7/1 (+700)8/1 (+800)66/1 (+6600)
Kamala Harris8/1 (+800)8/1 (+800)7/1 (+700)7/1 (+700)4/1 (+400)
Mike Pence16/1 (+1600)16/1 (+1600)25/1 (+2500)25/1 (+2500)12/1 (+1200)
Nikki Haley18/1 (+1800)18/1 (+1800)20/1 (+2000)20/1 (+2000)16/1 (+1600)
Pete Buttigieg 22/1 (+2200)22/1 (+2200)22/1 (+2200)20/1 (+2000)50/1 (+5000)

Odds to Win Democratic Nomination 2024 U.S. Presidential Election:

March 14, 2022February 25. 2022January 31, 2022October 6, 2021September 8, 2021August 25, 2021July 8, 2021
Joe Biden2/1 (+200)2/1 (+200)2/1 (+200)15/8 (+188)3/2 (+150)9/4 (+225)2/1 (+200)
Kamala Harris3/1 (+300)3/1 (+300)2/1 (+200)2/1 (+200)2/1 (+200)3/2 (+150)2/1 (+200)
Pete Buttigieg9/1 (+900)9/1 (+900)8/1 (+800)12/1 (+1200)12/1 (+1200)12/1 (+1200)12/1 (+1200)
Michelle Obama16/1 (+1600)16/1 (+1600)28/1 (+2800)40/1 (+4000)40/1 (+4000)40/1 (+4000)40/1 (+4000)
Hillary Clinton18/1 (+1800)20/1 (+2000)N/A50/1 (+5000)N/AN/AN/A

Odds to Win Republican Nomination 2024 U.S. Presidential Election:

March 14, 2022February 25. 2022January 31, 2022October 6, 2021September 8, 2021August 25, 2021July 8, 2021
Donald Trump1/1 (+100)1/1 (+100)6/5 (+120)3/2 (+150)2/1 (+200)2/1 (+200)3/1 (+300)
Ron DeSantis7/2 (+350)7/2 (+350)9/2 (+450)5/1 (+500)19/5 (+380)9/2 (+450)6/1 (+600)
Nikki Haley9/1 (+900)9/1 (+900)8/1 (+800)7/1 (+700)6/1 (+600)7/1 (+700)7/1 (+700)
Mike Pence 11/1 (+1100)11/1 (+1100)12/1 (+1200)14/1 (+1400)14/1 (+1400)12/1 (+1200)12/1 (+1200)
Kristi Noem25/1 (+2500)25/1 (+2500)25/1 (+2500)25/1 (+2500)25/1 (+2500)25/1 (+2500)25/1 (+2500)

Disclaimer: The odds posted in this article are for illustrative purposes only, as wagering on such props is not currently legal in any U.S. state. The data was based on betting markets offered by UK/European/worldwide operators regulated in jurisdictions where wagering on these props is legal.

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–GOP Candidates’ Odds Strengthen as Democrats’ Weaken–

Donald Trump’s odds to be the Republican nominee and win the 2024 U.S. Presidential Election have improved since the end of January, according to betting aggregators US-Bookies.com (See Disclaimer Below). Trump’s odds to win the Republican nomination shifted from 6/5 (45.5% implied probability) to 1/1 (50%), while his odds to win the 2024 election also strengthened from 3/1 (25%) to 11/4 (26.7%). He’s still the favorite in both markets. 

Ron DeSantis also noticed favorable movements in both betting markets. His odds to be the Republican nominee improved from 9/2 (18.2% implied probability) to 7/2 (22.2%). DeSantis also improved from 7/1 (12.5%) to 6/1 (14.3%) to win the 2024 election, where he’s overtaken Kamala Harris. The current vice president’s odds to win the 2024 U.S. Presidential Election worsened from 7/1 (12.5%) to 8/1 (11.1%)

“A recent CPAC straw poll emphasized Republican support for Donald Trump, which the odds have been showing for some time, as he’s been at the top of bookies’ lists for months,” says a US-Bookies spokesperson. “Also spelling good news for the GOP is that the past few months haven’t been helping the current administration’s odds, as Joe Biden’s and Kamala Harris’ continue to get worse.” 

Joe Biden’s odds to win the 2024 U.S. Presidential Election have weakened from 9/2 (18.2% implied probability) to 5/1 (16.7%) since the end of January. His odds to be the Democratic nominee have remained at 2/1 (33.3%), where he’s still the favorite. Harris’ odds to win the nomination worsened from 2/1 (33.3%) to 3/1 (25%). 

“Recent events present opportunities for Biden to gather some much-needed public support, as the odds continue show a Republican lead over the Democrats in the presidential markets,” says a US-Bookies spokesperson. “Midterm odds are forecasting similar results, as the GOP are odds-on favorites to win control of the House and Senate, as well.”

Republicans have 4/11 odds to win majority control of the U.S. Senate (73.3% implied probability), as well as 2/13 odds to win the House of Representatives (86.7%). Democrats have 13/2 odds to win the Senate (13.3%), and 11/2 odds to win the House (15.4%).  

Odds to win 2024 U.S. Presidential Election: 

February 25, 2022January 31, 2022January 7, 2022January 20, 2021
Donald Trump11/4 (+275)3/1 (+300)3/1 (+300)10/1 (+1000)
Joe Biden5/1 (+500)9/2 (+450)9/2 (+450)4/1 (+400)
Ron DeSantis6/1 (+600)7/1 (+700)8/1 (+800)66/1 (+6600)
Kamala Harris8/1 (+800)7/1 (+700)7/1 (+700)4/1 (+400)
Mike Pence16/1 (+1600)25/1 (+2500)25/1 (+2500)12/1 (+1200)
Nikki Haley18/1 (+1800)20/1 (+2000)20/1 (+2000)16/1 (+1600)
Pete Buttigieg 22/1 (+2200)22/1 (+2200)20/1 (+2000)50/1 (+5000)
Stacey Abrams80/1 (+8000)N/AN/AN/A

Odds to Win Democratic Nomination 2024 U.S. Presidential Election:

February 25. 2022January 31, 2022October 6, 2021September 8, 2021August 25, 2021July 8, 2021
Joe Biden2/1 (+200)2/1 (+200)15/8 (+188)3/2 (+150)9/4 (+225)2/1 (+200)
Kamala Harris3/1 (+300)2/1 (+200)2/1 (+200)2/1 (+200)3/2 (+150)2/1 (+200)
Pete Buttigieg9/1 (+900)8/1 (+800)12/1 (+1200)12/1 (+1200)12/1 (+1200)12/1 (+1200)
Michelle Obama16/1 (+1600)28/1 (+2800)40/1 (+4000)40/1 (+4000)40/1 (+4000)40/1 (+4000)
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez20/1 (+2000)25/1 (+2500)20/1 (+2000)20/1 (+2000)22/1 (+2200)22/1 (+2200)
Elizabeth Warren20/1 (+2000)25/1 (+2500)25/1 (+2500)22/1 (+2200)22/1 (+2200)22/1 (+2200)
Hillary Clinton20/1 (+2000)N/A50/1 (+5000)N/AN/AN/A
Stacey Abrams28/1 (+2800)28/1 (+2800)16/1 (+1600)N/AN/AN/A
Cory Booker50/1 (+5000)N/A25/1 (+2500)N/AN/AN/A

Odds to Win Republican Nomination 2024 U.S. Presidential Election:

February 25. 2022January 31, 2022October 6, 2021September 8, 2021August 25, 2021July 8, 2021
Donald Trump1/1 (+100)6/5 (+120)3/2 (+150)2/1 (+200)2/1 (+200)3/1 (+300)
Ron DeSantis7/2 (+350)9/2 (+450)5/1 (+500)19/5 (+380)9/2 (+450)6/1 (+600)
Nikki Haley9/1 (+900)8/1 (+800)7/1 (+700)6/1 (+600)7/1 (+700)7/1 (+700)
Mike Pence 11/1 (+1100)12/1 (+1200)14/1 (+1400)14/1 (+1400)12/1 (+1200)12/1 (+1200)
Mike Pompeo25/1 (+2500)25/1 (+2500)20/1 (+2000)20/1 (+2000)20/1 (+2000)20/1 (+2000)
Kristi Noem25/1 (+2500)25/1 (+2500)25/1 (+2500)25/1 (+2500)25/1 (+2500)25/1 (+2500)
Tucker Carlson25/1 (+2500)22/1 (+2200)20/1 (+2000)20/1 (+2000)20/1 (+2000)20/1 (+2000)
Ted Cruz28/1 (+2800)28/1 (+2800)16/1 (+1600)16/1 (+1600)14/1 (+1400)14/1 (+1400)
Tom Cotton33/1 (+3300)33/1 (+3300)25/1 (+2500)20/1 (+2000)20/1 (+2000)20/1 (+2000)

Odds to win Majority Control of the U.S. Senate After 2022 Midterms: 

Republicans: 4/11

No majority: 5/1

Democrat: 13/2

Odds to win Majority Control of the U.S. House of Representatives After 2022 Midterms: 

Republican: 2/13

Democrat: 11/2

No majority: 49/1


Disclaimer: The odds posted in this article are for illustrative purposes only, as wagering on such props is not currently legal in any U.S. state. The data was based on betting markets offered by UK/European/worldwide operators regulated in jurisdictions where wagering on these props is legal.


–Trump, DeSantis Improve in Presidential Odds Markets while Biden, Harris Worsen–

Donald Trump’s odds to win the 2024 U.S. Presidential Election have improved significantly since Joe Biden and Kamala Harris were inaugurated, according to betting aggregators US-Bookies.com (See Disclaimer Below). Since January 20, 2021, Trump’s 2024 odds shifted from 10/1 (9.1% implied probability) to 3/1 (25%), where he’s now the favorite to win the election. 

“A few days after the scenes at the Capitol, Donald Trump’s odds to win the 2024 election were noticeably worse than Joe Biden’s and Kamala Harris’, but that has since changed after the administration’s first year in office,”  says a US-Bookies spokesperson. “Since Biden and Harris were inaugurated, Trump surpassed both in the betting markets to become the sole favorite to win in 2024.” 

Since Biden and Harris were inaugurated, Trump surpassed both in the betting markets to become the sole favorite to win 2024.

Joe Biden’s and Kamala Harris’ odds to win the 2024 U.S. Presidential Election have worsened following the administration’s first year in office. Upon being inaugurated, Biden and Harris were tied as the 4/1 favorites to win the 2024 election (20% implied probability), but Biden now sits at 9/2 (18.2%) and Harris at 7/1 (12.5%).

“Following the Biden-Harris administration’s first year in office, Republicans have noticed the most favorable movements in the 2024 presidential betting markets,” says a US-Bookies spokesperson. “Meanwhile, the only Democrat whose odds became stronger is Pete Buttigieg.”  

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Ron DeSantis’ odds to win the 2024 election also improved from 66/1 (1.5% implied probability) to 8/1 (11.1%) since January 20, 2021. He now has the fourth best odds to be elected, and he’s followed by Nikki Haley and Pete Buttigieg, who are tied at 20/1 (4.8%). Buttigieg’s odds improved from 50/1 (2%) since Inauguration Day, while Haley’s worsened from 16/1 (5.9%).

Odds to win 2024 U.S. Presidential Election: 

January 7, 2022January 20, 2021
Donald Trump3/110/1
Joe Biden9/24/1
Kamala Harris7/14/1
Ron DeSantis8/166/1
Nikki Haley20/116/1
Pete Buttigieg 20/150/1
Mike Pence25/112/1

Disclaimer: The odds posted in this article are for illustrative purposes only, as wagering on such props is not currently legal in any U.S. state. The data was based on betting markets offered by UK/European/worldwide operators regulated in jurisdictions where wagering on these props is legal.