–McAuliffe’s Odds Worsen as Youngkin Improves–
Terry McAuliffe’s odds to win 2021 Virginia Gubernatorial Election have worsened since last week, according to betting aggregators US-Bookies (See Disclaimer Below). His odds to win the election have shifted from 2/7 (77.8% implied probability) to 2/5 (71.4%) since October 4. Glenn Youngkin’s have improved from 16/5 (23.8%) to 2/1 (33.3%) in the same timeframe.
“Following the candidates’ latest debate, McAuliffe widened his lead over Youngkin, but that trend appears to have reversed now,” says a US-Bookies spokesperson. “This means the Republican is building some momentum heading into the final weeks of the campaign trail.”
In the days following the latest debate, Youngkin’s odds worsened from 3/1 (25% implied probability) to 16/5 (23.8%). At the same time, McAuliffe improved from 3/10 (76.9%) to 2/7 (77.8%). However, both candidates’ odds have shifted in the opposite directions since then, with McAuliffe worseneing to 2/5 (71.4%) and Youngkin improving to 2/1 (33.3%).
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“Betting odds recently predicted the California governor recall more accurately than the polls, showing Gavin Newsom as more likely to survive the effort than what polling data indicated,” says a US-Bookies spokesperson. “At this point, betting odds are still more confident in a McAuliffe win than the polls are showing, but the odds also point to that gap closing up.”
According to a recent Monmouth University poll, McAuliffe holds a 48% to 43% lead over Youngkin. However, betting odds show that McAuliffe has a much stronger 71.4% to 33.3% lead.
Odds to Win 2021 Virginia Gubernatorial Election:
|Current Odds||Odds on October 4, 2021||Odds on September 29, 2021|
|Terry McAuliffe||2/5 (-250)||2/7 (-350)||3/10 (-333)|
|Glenn Youngkin||2/1 (+200)||16/5 (+320)||3/1 (+300)|
Disclaimer: The odds posted in this article are for illustrative purposes only, as wagering on such props is not
currently legal in any U.S. state. The data was based on betting markets offered by UK/European/worldwide
operators regulated in jurisdictions where wagering on these props is legal.