Oddsmakers Weigh in on Fan Theories for Upcoming Joker Origin Story

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Gambling Odds Suggest Arthur Fleck Kills Bruce Wayne’s Parents in Todd Phillips’ Joker

Oddsmakers Weigh in on Fan Theories for Upcoming Joker Origin Story
Photo credit: AntMan3001 on Visual Hunt / CC BY-SA

As the hype builds for Todd Phillips’ upcoming Joker film, fans are hard at work theorizing about the origin story of one of the most iconic villains in the history of comic books, television and cinema. This is especially the case with critically acclaimed actor Joaquin Phoenix being the next to don the mantle of the Clown Prince of Crime. After collecting and analyzing betting data surrounding Joker, US-Bookies has evaluated the likelihood of the speculated outcomes in the movie.

Unlikely Half-Brothers? 

One of the more popular fan theories involves Arthur Fleck, Phoenix’s character in the film, being the result of an affair Thomas Wayne had, making him Bruce Wayne’s half-brother. With the upcoming film’s depiction of Thomas Wayne being different than the noble philanthropist we’re used to, many suggest the possibility of him having a child with another woman may not be crazy. This may be the main plot twist of the film. However, bookies are not sold on this theory. Currently, the odds of Arthur Fleck and Bruce Wayne being related are only 6/4 so you might want to read our guide on how to read odds. The 1/2 odds of this not being the case appear to be the more likely scenario.

Joker Kills Batman’s Parents 

While the usual events that occur involve Thomas and Martha Wayne being murdered during a robbery, bookies expect a slight twist on this common traumatic event. Similar to how things went down in Tim Burton’s 1989 film, the oddsmakers suggest Joaquin Phoenix’s Joker will resemble Jack Nicholson’s in that he will be the one to kill Batman’s parents. The odds of Arthur Fleck being directly responsible for Thomas and Martha Wayne’s deaths currently sit at 1/2.

Arthur Fleck’s Mother 

While the official trailer depicts Arthur and his mother having a rather close relationship, many suspect this foreshadows what occurs in the film. A common theory involves Fleck’s mother dying, leading him to snap and turn to a life of crime, eventually becoming the Joker. According to the wagering data, this seems likely, as the odds of Fleck’s mother dying in the film are 1/4. In fact, her 5/2 odds of not dying in the film are currently among the highest of all betting markets, making this the biggest longshot of the film. As for possible reasons of death, some suggest it may be due to rising prices of her medication, leading Arthur to resent the company responsible for the price hike. If that company happens to be Wayne Enterprises, this could be what causes Fleck to take his anger out on Thomas Wayne.

Young Bruce Wayne’s Journey 

Given that Arthur Fleck and young Bruce Wayne seem to have some sort of relationship in the trailer, many fans are wondering this could affect the origin of Batman. More specifically, some theorize that this movie presents an alternate universe in which young Bruce Wayne actually grows up to become the Joker, rather than the Dark Knight of Gotham. However, bookies are getting ready for New York online sports betting and don’t expect this to be the case, as the odds of it happening are only 3/5, as opposed to the odds of it not happening being 7/5.

Award-Worthy Performance 

Given the nature of the character, the Joker is often a difficult role to play. Though many prominent actors, such as Jack Nicholson, Heath Ledger, and Jared Leto, have played the Clown Prince, the late Ledger was the only one to earn an Academy Award for his performance. However, Joker‘s inclusion at two prestigious film festivals is rare for a comic book-based film, fueling speculation it will be a major contender come awards season. Phoenix is currently the odds-on favorite to win Best Actor, as his odds have shortened from 8/1 to 6/4 in the last month. He’s currently ahead of Tom Hanks at 3/1 for A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood, Taron Egerton at 10/3 for Rocketman and Antonio Banderas at 7/2 for Pain and Glory.

With the film set to hit US screens on October 4, Batman fans are sure to continue putting out theories. It should be noted that betting on such topics is not currently legal in the states. However, this does not lessen the success of betting odds when predicting movie and television outcomes. For example, wagering data correctly forecasted much of the main events in the final season of HBO’s Game of Thrones. If the bookies have as much luck with Joker, the film’s hype would be well warranted.

Full betting odds for Joker can be found below:

Is Arthur Fleck/The Joker actually related to Bruce Wayne?
No: 1/2
Yes: 6/4

Does Arthur Fleck/Joker’s mother die in the film?
Yes: 1/4
No: 5/2

Is Arthur Fleck/The Joker directly responsible for the deaths of Bruce Wayne’s parents?
Yes: 1/2
No: 6/4

Does young Bruce Wayne actually grow up to become The Joker? 
No: 2/5
Yes: 7/4

Odds to Win Oscar for Best Actor:
Joaquin Phoenix – Joker: 6/4
Tom Hanks – A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood: 3/1
Taron Egerton – Rocketman: 10/3
Antonio Banderas – Pain and Glory: 7/2

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