Oscars Betting Odds Show Big Shakeup in Best Actress Category

–Jessica Chastain Improves from Fourth to First in Odds to Win–

Jessica Chastain is now the odds-on favorite to win Best Actress at the 94th Annual Academy Awards, according to betting aggregators US-Bookies.com (See Disclaimer Below). Her odds are currently 8/11 (57.9% implied probability), improving from 11/2 (15.4%) when nominations were announced. During this time, Nicole Kidman worsened from 11/8 (42.1%) to 7/2 (22.2%), Kristen Stewart worsened from 2/1 (33.3%) to 5/1 (16.7%), and Olivia Colman worsened from 9/2 (18.2%) to 5/1 (16.7%). 

“Jessica Chastain surged to the top of the bookies’ lists, as she had only the fourth best odds the day after nominations were announced”

US-Bookies spokesperson

“The Best Actor category has been more stable, as Will Smith has held the top spot even before nominations were announced, and he’s improved to 1/8 to win his first Oscar.” 

Jane Campion is the odds-on favorite to win Best Director. Her 1/25 odds to win the award (96.2% implied probability) are the strongest of any category in this year’s Oscars. The Power of the Dog is also the odds-on favorite to win Best Picture, with 2/5 odds (71.4%).  

“Even before nominations were officially announced, betting odds suggested Jane Campion was by far the most likely to win Best Director, and her odds have improved significantly since then,” says a US-Bookies spokesperson. “It’s been the same case for The Power of the Dog, as it’s always been the top pick and its chances have only improved.” 

Arianna DeBose is the odds-on favorite to win Best Supporting Actress, improving from 1/5 (83.3% implied probability) to 1/14 (93.3%) since nominations were released. Troy Kotsur improved from 9/4 (30.8%) to 4/11 (73.3%) to become the favorite to win Best Supporting Actor. Kotsur has overtaken Kodi Smit-McPhee, whose odds worsened from 1/2 (66.7%) to 15/8 (34.8%). 

“Though fans and odds suggested Denis Villeneuve not receiving a Best Director nomination marked the biggest snub of this year’s Oscars, Dune is still in a strong position to win most of the technical awards,” says a US-Bookies spokesperson. “Dune is currently the odds-on favorite to win Best Cinematography, Best Visual Effects, Best Sound, Best Original Score, Best Film Editing, and Best Production Design, which could make it the big winner of the evening” 

Odds to win 94th Academy Awards:

Best Picture
The Power of the Dog: 2/5
Belfast: 5/1
CODA: 6/1
King Richard: 16/1
West Side Story: 16/1
Don’t Look Up: 33/1
Dune: 33/1
Licorice Pizza: 33/1
Drive My Car: 50/1
Nightmare Alley: 100/1
Best Director
Jane Campion: 1/25
Kenneth Branagh: 14/1
Paul Thomas Anderson: 25/1
Ryusuke Hamaguchi: 33/1
Steven Spielberg: 40/1
Best Actress
Jessica Chastain: 8/11
Nicole Kidman: 7/2
Kristen Stewart: 5/1
Olivia Colman: 5/1
Penelope Cruz: 20/1
Best Actor
Will Smith: 1/8
Benedict Cumberbatch: 5/1
Andrew Garfield: 12/1
Denzel Washington: 33/1
Javier Bardem: 50/1
Best Supporting Actress
Ariana DeBose: 1/14
Kirsten Dunst: 6/1
Aunjanue Ellis: 18/1
Judi Dench: 25/1
Jessie Buckley: 33/1
Best Supporting Actor
Troy Kotsur: 4/11
Kodi Smit-McPhee: 15/8
Ciaran Hinds: 16/1
J.K. Simmons: 33/1
Jesse Plemons: 33/1
Original Screenplay
Licorice Pizza: 1/2
Belfast: 7/4
Don’t Look Up: 14/1
King Richard: 20/1
The Worst Person in the World: 20/1
Adapted Screenplay
The Power Of The Dog: 4/9
CODA: 7/2
The Lost Daughter: 9/2
Dune: 16/1
Drive My Car: 25/1
Best Cinematography
Dune: 1/4
The Power of the Dog: 11/4
The Tragedy of Macbeth: 12/1
West Side Story: 16/1
Nightmare Alley: 33/1
Best Visual Effects
Dune: 1/16
Spider-Man: No Way Home: 10/1
Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings: 14/1
Free Guy: 20/1
No Time To Die: 20/1
Best Original Song
No Time To Die (No Time To Die): 1/2
Dos Oruguitas (Encanto): 9/4
Be Alive (King Richard): 7/1
Down to Joy (Belfast): 25/1
Somehow You Do (Four Good Days): 25/1
Best Documentary Feature
Summer of Soul (…Or, When The Revolution Could Not Be Televised): 2/5
Flee: 2/1
Ascension: 16/1
Attica: 20/1
Writing With Fire: 33/1
Best Animated Feature
Encanto: 1/4
Flee: 6/1
Luca: 8/1
The Mitchells vs. the Machines: 10/1
Raya and the Last Dragon: 25/1
Best International Feature
Drive My Car: 1/12
The Worst Person in the World: 9/1
Flee: 10/1
Lunana: A Yak in the Classroom: 25/1
The Hand of God: 25/1
Best Costume Design
Cruella: 2/7
Dune: 7/2
West Side Story: 10/1
Cyrano: 20/1
Nightmare Alley: 20/1
Best Sound
Dune: 1/5
West Side Story: 5/1
No Time To Die: 12/1
The Power of the Dog: 14/1
Belfast: 16/1
Best Original Score
Dune: 2/9
The Power of the Dog: 4/1
Encanto: 12/1
Don’t Look Up: 16/1
Parallel Mothers: 25/1
Best Animated Short
Robin Robin: 4/7
Bestia: 5/1
Boxballet: 5/1
Affairs of the Art: 8/1
The Windshield Wiper: 8/1
Best Live Action Short
The Long Goodbye: 4/9
Ala Kachuu – Take and Run: 4/1
The Dress: 11/2
On My Mind: 10/1
Please Hold: 16/1
Best Documentary Short
The Queen of Basketball: 8/11
Three Songs for Benazir: 13/8
Audible: 7/1
Lead Me Home: 12/1
When We Were Bullies: 25/1
Best Film Editing
Dune: 8/11
King Richard: 3/1
The Power of the Dog: 4/1
tick,tick… Boom!: 8/1
Don’t Look Up: 20/1
Best Makeup And Hairstyling
The Eyes of Tammy Faye: 2/5
Dune: 11/2
Coming 2 America: 6/1
Cruella: 7/1
House of Gucci: 16/1
Best Production Design
Dune: 2/5
Nightmare Alley: 9/4
The Power of the Dog: 14/1
West Side Story: 14/1
The Tragedy of Macbeth: 25/1

Disclaimer: The odds posted in this article are for illustrative purposes only, as wagering on such props is not currently legal in any U.S. state. The data was based on betting markets offered by UK/European/worldwide operators regulated in jurisdictions where wagering on these props is legal.

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