Murphy’s Re-election Odds Improve Following First Debate

–NJ Gubernatorial Election Odds Suggest Murphy Won his First Debate with Ciattarelli–

Phil Murphy’s odds to be re-elected have improved slightly following the first debate, according to betting aggregators US-Bookies (See Disclaimer Below). Prior to the debate, Murphy was the 2/9 favorite to win the 2021 New Jersey Gubernatorial Election (81.8% implied probability), but his odds have since improved to 1/10 (90.9%) 

Jack Ciattarelli’s odds followed the opposite path. Heading into the debate, Ciattarelli was a distant 4/1 to win the election (20% implied probability). His odds soon worsened to 7/1 (12.5%).

“While neither candidate noticed a huge change in odds, the shifts did reverse some trends from the summer,” says a US-Bookies spokesperson. “Prior to the debate, Murphy’s odds had been worsening since June, while Ciattarelli was beginning to catch up. But it seems that the Republican challenger’s progress has been halted for now.” 

Last week’s Monmouth University poll listed Murphy with a 51% to 38% lead, a small shift from a 52% to 36% lead in August. However, betting odds give Murphy a 90.9% to 12.5% lead, which is an improvement from his 81.8% to 20% lead heading into the debate. 

 “Betting odds recently predicted the California recall more accurately than polls, as the odds more strongly predicted a Newsom win,” says a US-Bookies spokesperson. “At the moment, betting odds are also showing Murphy as a stronger favorite than the polls are indicating.”

Odds to Win 2021 New Jersey Gubernatorial Election:

Post-debate OddsPre-debate OddsOdds from One Month Ago
Phil Murphy1/10 (-1000)2/9 (-450)1/10 (-1000)
Jack Ciattarelli7/1 (+700)4/1 (+400)13/2 (+650)

Disclaimer: The odds posted in this article are for illustrative purposes only, as wagering on such props is not currently legal in any U.S. state. The data was based on betting markets offered by UK/European/worldwide operators regulated in jurisdictions where wagering on these props is legal.

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