Political Betting Experts Give Murphy Stronger Lead Than Polls

–NJ Gubernatorial Betting Odds Remain Unchanged Since Last Week–

Phil Murphy is still the odds-on favorite to win the 2021 Gubernatorial Election, according to betting aggregators US-Bookies.com (See Disclaimer Below). Murphy has 1/20 odds to win the election (95.2% implied probability), while Ciattarelli’s odds are 9/1 (10%). 

“Ciattarelli’s last-minute momentum appears to have come to a halt, as his odds haven’t changed since their slight improvement last week,” says a US-Bookies spokesperson. “This means that Murphy still holds a strong lead, and the bookies expect him to be the first Democrat to be re-elected as governor of New Jersey in over 40 years.” 

In the weeks following the candidates’ second debate Ciattarelli’s odds improved from 12/1 (7.7% implied probability) to 9/1 (10%). Murphy’s odds have remained at 1/20 during this time (95.2%). Neither candidate has noticed any shifts in odds since then. 

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The latest Fairleigh Dickenson University poll listed Murphy with a nine-point lead over Ciattarelli, which is in line with other recent polls. However, betting odds show the incumbent with a wider lead, as they give Murphy a 95.2% chance to win the election, compared to Ciattarelli’s 10%.  

“The difference in betting odds and polls also appeared in the California governor recall election, where the odds were more confident that the effort would fall flat,” says a US-Bookies spokesperson. “Polls at the time were showing a closer race, suggesting that betting odds were more accurate in the predictions.” 

Odds to Win 2021 New Jersey Gubernatorial Election:

Odds on November 1Odds on October 25Odds After Second Debate (October 13)Odds Before Second Debate (October 12)Odds After First Debate (September 29)Odds Before First Debate (September 28)Odds on August 29
Phil Murphy1/20
(-2000)
1/20
(-2000)
1/20
(-2000)
1/20
(-2000)
1/10
(-1000)
2/9
(-450)
1/10
(-1000)
Jack Ciattarelli9/1
(+900)
9/1
(+900)
12/1
(+1200)
12/1
(+1200)
7/1
(+700)
4/1
(+400)
13/2
(+650)

Disclaimer: The odds posted in this article are for illustrative purposes only, as wagering on such props is not currently legal in any U.S. state. The data was based on betting markets offered by UK/European/worldwide operators regulated in jurisdictions where wagering on these props is legal.

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