Gavin Newsom’s Odds to Survive Recall Effort Improved Significantly Since Last Week

Oddsmakers Give California Governor Recall 99% Chance of Falling Flat

Gavin Newsom’s odds to survive the recall have improved from 1/7 (87.5% implied probability) to 1/100 (99%) since last week, according to betting aggregators. At the same time, the odds he is actually recalled have worsened from 7/1 (12.5%) to 14/1 (6.7%). 

“The betting odds have been painting an increasingly positive picture for Gavin Newsom, as the bookies appear near certain that he will remain in office,” says a US-Bookies spokesperson. “In fact, odds have predicted that Newsom will not be recalled since March and have been steadily moving in his favor since.”

In mid-March, Newsom’s odds to be recalled were 15/8 (34.8% implied probability), and the odds of the recall falling flat were 2/5 (71.4%). This indicates that even six months ago, bookies suggested the recall effort was not likely to succeed. 

Newsom’s odds to be Governor of California at year’s end have also improved from 1/7 (87.5% implied probability) to 1/100 (99%). His nearest competitor, Larry Elder, has worsened from 14/1 (6.7%) to 20/1 (4.8%). 

“Practically all replacement candidates have seen their odds worsen recently, suggesting that the oddsmakers don’t view any s a significant threat to Newsom,” says a US-Bookies spokesperson “The only replacement candidate whose odds did not worsen since last week is Caitlyn Jenner, but her odds remain at 100/1, putting her well into the longshot category.” 

Will Gavin Newsom be Recalled in 2021? (parentheses indicate odds on September 9, 2021):

Yes: 14/1 (7/2)
No: 1/100 (1/7)

Odds to be California Governor at the End of the Year (parentheses indicate odds on September 9, 2021):
Gavin Newsom: 1/100 (1/7)
Larry Elder: 20/1 (14/1)
Kevin Paffrath: 29/1 (25/1)
Kevin Faulconer: 33/1 (30/1)
Caitlyn Jenner: 100/1

Disclaimer: The odds posted in this article are for illustrative purposes only, as wagering on such props is not currently legal in any U.S. state. The data was based on betting markets offered by UK/European/worldwide operators regulated in jurisdictions where wagering on these props is legal.

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