California Governor Recall Odds Show Growing Confidence in Newsom
Larry Elder’s Odds Worsen to Become Next California Governor
Gavin Newsom’s odds to survive the recall have improved since last month, according to betting aggregators. His odds of not being recalled have improved from 1/4 (80% implied probability) to 1/7 (87.5%) since August 19, while his odds of being recalled worsened from 3/1 (25%) to 7/2 (22.2%).
“Polls continue to show a positive outlook for Newsom with a slim margin of error, but betting odds have been much higher on the current governor remaining in power with a much wider gap than what polls have been showing,” says a US-Bookies spokesperson. “In fact, odds have predicted that Newsom will not be recalled since March.”
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Though he’s the favorite among replacement candidates, Larry Elder’s odds to be the next governor of California have worsened. On August 19, he was 5/1 (16.7% implied probability) to replace Newsom, but those odds have since shifted to 14/1 (6.7%).
“Elder has been thrust into the spotlight as the GOP’s hope to take California, but the odds indicate that he won’t have enough support to cause voters in favor of the recall,” says a US-Bookies spokesperson. “With his odds moving in the wrong direction in the final days until the recall, bookies’ don’t consider him a strong enough threat to Newsom.”
Will Gavin Newsom be Recalled in 2021?
Odds to be California Governor at the End of the Year:
Gavin Newsom: 1/7
Larry Elder: 14/1
Kevin Paffrath: 25/1
Kevin Faulconer: 30/1
Caitlyn Jenner: 100/1
Disclaimer: The odds posted in this article are for illustrative purposes only, as wagering on such props is not currently legal in any U.S. state. The data was based on betting markets offered by UK/European/worldwide operators regulated in jurisdictions where wagering on these props is legal.