Trump’s Election Odds Have Bounced Back from Worst Point Following January 6 Events, Second Impeachment
Donald Trump’s 2024 election odds have been trending favorably for months, leading oddsmakers to believe he has a strong chance at being the Republican Nominee, according to betting aggregators. Trump is currently 6/1 (14.3% implied probability) to win the U.S. Presidential Election, and the 7/2 (22.2%) favorite to be the Republican Nominee.
“Despite everything that we’ve seen in the headlines, including what transpired on January 6, Trump’s odds to win the 2024 election are stronger than they were the night that many outlets declared Joe Biden the winner of the 2020 election,”
says a US-Bookies spokesperson.
“While some experts have suggested Trump won’t find success getting the 2024 Republican nomination, the odds point to a different outcome, as the 45th President currently has a good chance at being the nominee, holding better odds that prominent Republicans like Nikki Haley, Mike Pence and Ron DeSantis.”
As of November 7, 2020, when outlets began declaring Joe Biden the winner of the election, Trump’s odds to win the 2024 election were 10/1 (9.1% implied probability). By December 15, 2020, when the Electoral College confirmed Joe Biden’s victory, Trump’s odds had improved to 6/1 (15.4%). Following the Capitol incident, and the subsequent article of impeachment that was introduced, Trump’s odds to win the 2024 election worsened to 11/1 (8.3%), their worst position of the last five months. However, his odds gradually increased to 7/1 (12.5%) by February 14, when he was acquitted by the Senate. They continued to improve to their current position of 6/1 (14.3%).
Trump’s odds to be the Republican nominee in the 2024 U.S. Presidential Election have followed a similar pattern. On November 11, 2020, when he refused to concede to Joe Biden, Trump’s odds to be the 2024 Republican nominee were 7/2 (22.2% implied probability). These odds eventually worsened to 7/1 (12.5%) on January 11, 2021, which was their worst point in the past 5 months. However, they soon rebounded, and Trump now sits at 7/2 again.
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“The value of betting data lies in the fact that odds are based on people putting money toward their predictions, suggesting they have some degree of confidence that this prediction comes true,”
says a US-Bookies spokesperson.
“In the case of Trump being the 2024 Republican nominee, his overall election odds should come as a good indicator that there are sizable amounts of bettors that could see his run being successful.”
Donald Trump’s Odds to Win The 2024 U.S. Presidential Election
| Date | Odds (implied probability in parentheses) |
| November 7, 2020 | 10/1 (9.1%) |
| November 11, 2020 | 8/1 (11.1%) |
| December 15, 2020 | 6/1 (14.3%) |
| January 2, 2021 | 11/2 (15.4%) |
| January 7, 2021 | 9/1 (10%) |
| January 12, 2021 | 11/1 (8.3%) |
| January 20, 2021 | 6/1 (14.3%) |
| January 26, 2021 | 10/1 (9.1%) |
| February 10, 2021 | 10/1 (9.1%) |
| February 14, 2021 | 7/1 (12.5%) |
| March 1, 2021 | 6/1 (14.3%) |
| March 22, 2021 | 6/1 (14.3%) |
Donald Trump’s Odds to be Republican Nominee in 2024 U.S. Presidential Election:
| Date | Odds (implied probability in parentheses) |
| November 11, 2020 | 7/2 (22.2%) |
| January 5, 2021 | 5/2 (28.6%) |
| January 7, 2021 | 7/2 (22.2%) |
| January 11, 2021 | 7/1 (12.5%) |
| January 12, 2021 | 9/2 (18.2%) |
| January 20, 2021 | 4/1 (20%) |
| February 10, 2021 | 5/1 (16.7%) |
| February 14, 2021 | 7/2 (22.2%) |
| March 1, 2021 | 3/1 (25%) |
| March 22, 2021 | 7/2 (22.2%) |
| Odds to be Republican Nominee in 2024 U.S. Presidential Election: Donald Trump: 7/2 Nikki Haley: 11/2 Mike Pence: 6/1 Ron DeSantis: 10/1 Ivanka Trump: 16/1 Ted Cruz: 16/1 Kristi Noem: 16/1 Paul Ryan: 18/1 Tom Cotton: 18/1 Marco Rubio: 22/1 Mike Pompeo: 25/1 Mitt Romney: 33/1 Dan Crenshaw: 33/1 Josh Hawley: 40/1 Jim Jordan: 50/1 Susan Collins: 60/1 Kanye West: 66/1 Rand Paul: 66/1 | Odds to win 2024 U.S. Presidential Election: Kamala Harris: 7/2 Joe Biden: 5/1 Donald Trump: 6/1 Nikki Haley: 12/1 Mike Pence: 16/1 Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez: 18/1 Ivanka Trump: 18/1 Donald Trump Jr.: 18/1 Eric Trump: 18/1 Ron DeSantis: 20/1 Beto O’Rourke: 22/1 Eric Holder: 25/1 Paul Ryan: 25/1 Michelle Obama: 25/1 Marco Rubio 33/1 Pete Buttigieg: 33/1 Oprah Winfrey: 33/1 Tom Cotton: 33/1 Bernie Sanders: 33/1 Dan Crenshaw: 33/1 Tucker Carlson: 33/1 Elizabeth Warren: 35/1 Mike Pompeo: 40/1 Eric Garcetti: 40/1 Tulsi Gabbard: 40/1 Deval Patrick: 40/1 Ted Crux: 40/1 Kristi Noem: 40/1 Sherrod Brown: 50/1 Cory Booker: 50/1 Andrew Yang: 50/1 John Hickenlooper: 50/1 Margaret Hassan: 50/1 Philip Murphy: 50/1 Tammy Duckworth: 50/1 Julian Castro: 50/1 Mitt Romney: 50/1 Jay Inslee: 50/1 Tim Ryan: 50/1 Kanye West: 50/1 Hillary Clinton: 50/1 J.B. Pritzker: 50/1 |
Disclaimer: The odds posted in this article are for illustrative purposes only, as wagering on such props is not currently legal in any U.S. state. The data was based on betting markets offered by UK/European/worldwide operators regulated in jurisdictions where wagering on these props is legal.
