Oscars Betting Odds Suggest Denis Villeneuve As Biggest Snub

–Dune Director Held Second-best Odds to Win Academy Award Before Nominations–

Denis Villeneuve held 10/1 odds to win Best Director (9.1% implied probability) before nominations were announced for the 94th Annual Academy Awards, according to betting aggregators US-Bookies.com (See Disclaimer Below). Villeneuve had the second-best odds to win the Oscar, trailing only Jane Campion, whose odds were 1/3 last week. However, Villeneuve was not nominated to win Best Director. 

“Early Oscars odds are often used to predict nominees, as the most likely candidates to win a given award would theoretically be the most likely to be nominated, but that wasn’t the case for Denis Villeneuve,” says a US-Bookies spokesperson. “Despite trailing only the favorite to win Best Director, Villeneuve didn’t receive a nomination, and his odds to win the category were stronger than other notable snubs.” 

Despite trailing only the favorite to win Best Director, Villeneuve didn’t receive a nomination, and his odds to win the category were stronger than other notable snubs.”

US Bookies

Jamie Dornan is also on the bookies’ list of snubs, as he had 12/1 odds to win Best Supporting Actor for his role in Belfast (7.7% implied probability), which were the fourth best to win the award. Jared Leto was fifth at 20/1 (4.8%), but he also did not receive a nomination. Jesse Plemons and J.K. Simmons were nominated despite not being among the top five in early betting odds. 

Caitriona Balfe and Rita Moreno had the fourth- and fifth-best odds to win Best Supporting Actress. Balfe was 20/1 (4.8% implied probability) and Moreno was 25/1 (3.8%), but neither was nominated. Jessie Buckley and Judi Dench were nominated despite being outside the top five.

Peter Dinklage was another snub in the major categories, as he held 25/1 odds to win Best Lead Actor before nominees were announced (3.8% implied probability). These were the fifth-best odds, but he did not receive a nomination. Javier Bardem was nominated for his role in Being the Ricardos instead of Dinklage. 

“Betting odds predicted the Best Lead Actress nominees perfectly, as the top five in last week’s betting markets ended up being the five nominees,” says a US-Bookies spokesperson. “This suggests that there were no real snubs in the category.”  

Odds to win 94th Academy Awards as of February 4, 2022 (before nominations): 

Snub – Was among the top 5 in betting odds, but was not nominated

Surprise – Was not among the top 5 in betting odds, but was nominated

Best Picture
The Power of the Dog: 21/20
Belfast: 3/1
West Side Story: 8/1
King Richard: 9/1
Dune: 12/1
Best Director
Jane Campion (The Power of the Dog): 1/3
Snub: Denis Villeneuve (Dune): 10/1
Steven Spielberg (West Side Story): 12/1
Kenneth Branagh (Belfast): 20/1
Paul Thomas Anderson (Licorice Pizza): 25/1
Surprise: Ryûsuke Hamaguchi (Drive My Car)
Best Lead Actress
Nicole Kidman (Being the Ricardos): 9/5
Kristen Stewart (Spencer): 3/1 
Olivia Colman (The Lost Daughter): 11/2
Jessica Chastain (The Eyes of Tammy Faye): 10/1
Penelope Cruz (Parallel Mothers): 12/1
Best Lead Actor
Will Smith (King Richard): 1/2
Benedict Cumberbatch (The Power of the Dog): 9/2
Andrew Garfield (tick, tick… Boom!): 9/1
Denzel Washington (The Tragedy of Macbeth): 16/1
Peter Dinklage (Cyrano): 25/1 
Surprise: Javier Bardem (Being the Ricardos)
Best Supporting Actress
Ariana DeBose (West Side Story): 5/4
Kirsten Dunst (The Power of the Dog): 5/2
Aunjanue Ellis (King Richard): 10/3
Snub: Caitriona Balfe (Belfast): 20/1
Snub: Rita Moreno (West Side Story): 25/1

Surprise: Jessie Buckley (The Lost Daughter)
Surprise: Judi Dench (Belfast)
Best Supporting Actor
Kodi Smit-McPhee (The Power of the Dog) 4/11
Ciaran Hinds (Belfast) 7/1
Troy Kotsur (CODA) 9/1
Snub: Jamie Dornan (Belfast) 12/1
Snub: Jared Leto (House of Gucci) 33/1

Surprise: Jesse Plemons (The Power of the Dog)
Surprise: J.K Simmons (Being the Ricardos)

Disclaimer: The odds posted in this article are for illustrative purposes only, as wagering on such props is not currently legal in any U.S. state. The data was based on betting markets offered by UK/European/worldwide operators regulated in jurisdictions where wagering on these props is legal.

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