“Oklahoma!” Appears to be the Biggest Shoo-in to Win a Tony, According to Gambling Data
With the 73rd Annual Tony Awards approaching on Sunday, June 9, theater fans wait anxiously to see which of their favorite plays, musicals, actors, and actresses will take home awards. After nominees were announced last month, US-Bookies has compiled the wagering data to weigh in on who is expected to win each category. Let’s raise on the curtains on the odds-on favorites. Note that these odds are for illustrative purposes only; wagering on such props is not currently legal in any U.S. state. Read more about legal online gambling.
Best Play: “The Ferryman”
At 2/1 odds, “The Ferryman” is the current favorite to take home the award for Best Play. However, “What the Constitution Means to Me” and “Ink” are making it a close race, sitting at 9/4 and 7/2 odds, respectively.
Best Musical: “The Prom”
Oddsmakers seem to think audiences and critics were captivated by “The Prom,” as it’s currently the odds-on favorite to win Best Musical at 2/1 odds. It’s closely followed by “Tootsie” and “Hadestown,” both at 9/4 odds.
Best Revival of a Musical: “Oklahoma!”
The revival of Rodgers and Hammerstein’s “Oklahoma!” is the strongest favorite of the night. At 1/2 odds to win Best Revival of a Musical, it holds the largest margin of expected victory over its nearest competitor, “Kiss me Kate” (9/5).
Best Revival of a Play: “Burn This”
According to the betting data, “Burn This” is set to hoist the award for Best Revival of a Play with 2/1 odds. However, “All My Sons” and “The Waverly Gallery” are making it an exciting race at 9/4 and 5/2 odds, respectively.
Best Actor in a Play: Tied
The Best Actor in a Play category is the biggest toss-up of the night, with three of the nominees currently tied as favorites. Paddy Considine (“The Ferryman”), Jeff Daniels (“To Kill a Mockingbird”), and Bryan Cranston (“Network”) all hold 9/4 odds, meaning this may the hardest award of the night to predict.
Best Actress in a Play: Elaine May
For her role in “The Waverly Gallery,” Elaine May is the one oddsmakers expect to win Best Actress in a Play with 5/2 odds. Annette Benning (“All My Sons”) is right behind at 11/4, and Laurie Metcalf (“Hillary and Clinton”) follows at 3/1.
Best Actor in a Musical: Santino Fontana
The odds currently predict Santino Fontana of “Tootsie” to take home the award for Best Actor in a Musical at 2/1 odds. He’s followed closely by Damon Daunno (“Oklahoma!”), who holds 9/4 odds of winning the award.
Best Actress in a Musical: Stephanie J. Block
With 2/1 odds, Stephanie J. Block is the odds-on favorite to win Best Actress in a Musical for her performance in “The Cher Show,” for which she already won an Outer Critics Circle Award. Ironically, Cher herself is a Tony away from EGOT status.
Best Featured Actor in a Play: Brandon Uranowitz
Brandon Uranowitz of “Burn This” is the current odds-on favorite to win Best Featured actor in a play with 6/1 odds. In distant second, there’s a tie among all other nominees, including Robin De Jesus (“The Boys in the Band”), Gideon Flick (“To Kill a Mockingbird”), Bertie Carvel (“Ink”), and Benjamin Walker (“All My Sons”), all at 15/1.
Best Featured Actress in a Play: Celia Keenan-Bolger
For her role as Scout Finch in “To Kill a Mockingbird,” Celia Keenan-Bolger holds the best odds (5/4) to win Best Featured Actress in a Play. Fionna Flanagan (“The Ferryman”) is in a more distant second with 9/4 odds.
Best Featured Actor in a Musical: Andre De Shields
This category features an interesting race, as two of the top nominees are from the same musical. Andre De Shields is currently favored at 2/1, but his “Hadestown” co-star Patrick Page, as well as Ephraim Sykes (“Ain’t Too Proud”), follow closely at 5/2.
Best Featured Actress in a Musical: Ali Stroker
At 7/4 Odds, Ali Stroker (“Oklahoma!”) should take home the Best Featured Actress in a Musical award. However, Amber Gray of “hadestown” should make it interesting, following at 2/1.
Though wagering on these topics is not currently legal in the US, the wagering data is often a strong predictor of actual outcomes. For example, data collected by Bet-NJ, part of the US-Bookies betting intelligence network, correctly predicted 6 of eight major Oscar winners before the 91st Academy Awards. However, those numbers were based on actual bets, as New Jersey allowed for gambling only on the Oscars, and Garden State residents almost $750,000, according to the New Jersey Division of Gaming Enforcement.
Full betting odds for the 73rd Tony Awards can be found below:
2019 TONY AWARDS NIELSEN RATING
Over 4.75: 4/6
Under 4.75: 13/10
2019 TONY AWARDS SHARE
10 or Over: 2/5
Under 10: 21/10
2019 TONY AWARDS INITIAL VIEWERSHIP OF CBS LIVE BROADCAST
Over 6.15 million: 4/7
Under 6.15 million: 6/4
TO WIN THE TONY AWARD FOR ‘BEST PLAY’
The Ferryman: 2/1
What the Constitution Means to Me: 9/4
Ink: 7/2
Choir Boy: 4/1
Gary: A Sequel to Titus Andronicus: 4/1
TO WIN THE TONY AWARD FOR ‘BEST MUSICAL’
The Prom: 2/1
Tootsie: 9/4
Hadestown: 9/4
Ain’t Too Proud: 5/1
Beetlejuice: 5/1
TO WIN THE TONY AWARD FOR ‘BEST REVIVAL OF A MUSICAL’
Oklahoma: 1/2
Kiss Me Kate: 9/5
TO WIN THE TONY AWARD FOR ‘BEST REVIVAL OF A PLAY’
Burn This: 2/1
All My Sons: 9/4
The Waverly Gallery: 5/2
The Boys in the Band: 5/1
Any Musical Revival: 5/1
TO WIN THE TONY AWARD FOR ‘BEST ACTOR IN A PLAY’
Paddy Considine/The Ferryman: 9/4
Jeff Daniels/To Kill A Mockingbird: 9/4
Bryan Cranston/Network: 9/4
Adam Driver/Burn This: 5/1
Jeremy Pope/Choir Boy: 5/1
TO WIN THE TONY AWARD FOR ‘BEST ACTRESS IN A PLAY’
Elaine May/The Waverly Gallery: 5/2
Annette Benning/All My Sons: 11/4
Laurie Metcalf/Hillary and Clinton: 3/1
Laura Donnelly/The Ferryman: 5/1
Heidi Schreck/What the Constitution Means To Me: 5/1
Janet McTeer/Bernhardt/Hamlet: 7/1
TO WIN THE TONY AWARD FOR ‘BEST ACTOR IN A MUSICAL’
Santino Fontana/Tootsie: 2/1
Damon Daunno/Oklahoma!: 9/4
Alex Brightman/Beetlejuice: 7/2
Brooks Ashmanskas/The Prom: 7/2
Derek Baskin/Ain’t Too Proud: 5/1
TO WIN THE TONY AWARD FOR ‘BEST ACTRESS IN A MUSICAL’
Stephanie J. Block/The Cher Show: 2/1
Kelli O’Hara/Kiss Me Kate: 3/1
Beth Leavel/The Prom: 3/1
Eva Noblezada/Hadestown: 3/1
Caitlin Kinnunen/The Prom: 5/1
TO WIN THE TONY AWARD FOR ‘BEST FEATURED ACTOR IN A PLAY’
Brandon Uranowitz/Burn This: 6/1
Robin De Jesus/The Boys in the Band: 15/1
Gideon Glick/To Kill A Mockingbird: 15/1
Bertie Carvel/Ink: 15/1
Benjamin Walker/All My Sons: 15/1
TO WIN THE TONY AWARD FOR ‘BEST FEATURED ACTRESS IN A PLAY’
Celia Keenan-Bolger/To Kill A Mockingbird: 5/4
Fionnula Flanagan/The Ferryman: 9/4
Julie White/Gary: A Sequel to Titus Andronicus: 5/1
Kristine Nielsen/Gary: A Sequel to Titus Andronicus: 5/1
Ruth Wilson/Wm. Shakespeare’s King Lear: 5/1
TO WIN THE TONY AWARD FOR ‘BEST FEATURED ACTOR IN A MUSICAL’
Andre De Shields/Hadestown: 2/1
Patrick Page/Hadestown: 5/2
Ephraim Sykes/Ain’t Too Proud: 5/2
Andy Grotelueschen/Tootsie: 5/1
Jeremy Pope/Ain’t Too Proud: 5/1
TO WIN THE TONY AWARD FOR ‘BEST FEATURED ACTRESS IN A MUSICAL’
Ali Stroker/Oklahoma!: 7/4
Amber Gray/Hadestown: 2/1
Mary Testa/Oklahoma!: 9/2
Sarah Stiles/Tootsie: 9/2
Lilli Cooper/Tootsie: 9/2
TO WIN THE TONY AWARD FOR ‘BEST DIRECTION OF A PLAY’
The Ferryman: 6/4
To Kill A Mockingbird: 7/4
Network: 5/1
Gary: A Sequel to Titus Andronicus: 5/1
Ink: 5/1
TO WIN THE TONY AWARD FOR ‘BEST DIRECTION OF A MUSICAL’
Oklahoma!: 2/1
Hadestown: 9/4
The Prom: 7/2
Tootsie: 7/2
Ain’t Too Proud: 5/1
TO WIN THE TONY AWARD FOR ‘BEST MUSICAL SCORE’
Hadestown: 9/4
The Prom: 5/2
Tootsie: 5/1
Be More Chill: 5/1
Beetlejuice: 5/1
To Kill a Mockingbird: 5/1
TO WIN THE TONY AWARD FOR ‘BEST MUSICAL BOOK’
Tootsie: 6/4
Hadestown: 11/5
The Prom: 3/1
Ain’t Too Proud: 5/1
Beetlejuice: 7/1
TO WIN THE TONY AWARD FOR ‘BEST CHOREOGRAPHY’
Kiss Me Kate: 2/1
Hadestown: 9/4
Tootsie: 5/2
Ain’t Too Proud: 5/1
Choir Boy: 5/1
TO WIN THE TONY AWARD FOR ‘BEST ORCHESTRATIONS’
Oklahoma!: 2/1
Hadestown: 9/4
Kiss Me Kate: 7/2
Tootsie: 7/2
Ain’t Too Proud: 5/1
TO WIN THE TONY AWARD FOR ‘BEST SCENIC DESIGN OF A PLAY’
The Ferryman: 2/1
To Kill A Mockingbird: 9/4
Network: 5/2
Gary: A Sequel to Titus Andronicus: 5/1
Ink: 5/1
TO WIN THE TONY AWARD FOR ‘BEST SCENIC DESIGN OF A MUSICAL’
Hadestown: 7/4
Beetlejuice: 5/2
King Kong: 5/2
Ain’t Too Proud: 5/1
Oklahoma: 5/1
TO WIN THE TONY AWARD FOR ‘BEST COSTUME DESIGN OF A PLAY’
The Ferryman: 9/4
To Kill A Mockingbird: 9/4
Torch Song: 3/1
Gary: A Sequel to Titus Andronicus: 3/1
Bernhardt/Hamlet: 6/1
TO WIN THE TONY AWARD FOR ‘BEST COSTUME DESIGN OF A MUSICAL’
The Cher Show: 7/4
Beetlejuice: 9/4
Hadestown: 9/4
Ain’t Too Proud: 6/1
Tootsie: 6/1
TO WIN THE TONY AWARD FOR ‘BEST LIGHTING DESIGN OF A PLAY’
Network: 2/1
The Ferryman: 9/4
Ink: 5/2
Gary: A Sequel to Titus Andronicus: 5/1
To Kill A Mockingbird: 5/1
TO WIN THE TONY AWARD FOR ‘BEST LIGHTING DESIGN OF A MUSICAL’
Hadestown: 7/4
Beetlejuice: 9/4
King Kong: 3/1
Ain’t Too Proud: 5/1
The Cher Show: 5/1
TO WIN THE TONY AWARD FOR ‘BEST SOUND DESIGN OF A PLAY’
The Ferryman: 7/4
Network: 9/4
Ink: 3/1
Choir Boy: 5/1
To Kill A Mockingbird: 5/1
TO WIN THE TONY AWARD FOR ‘BEST SOUND DESIGN OF A MUSICAL’
Hadestown: 2/1
Beetlejuice: 9/4
King Kong: 3/1
Ain’t Too Proud: 9/2
Oklahoma: 9/2
Disclaimer: The odds posted in this article are for illustrative purposes only, as wagering on such props is not currently legal in any U.S. state. The data was based on betting markets offered by UK/European/worldwide operators regulated in jurisdictions where wagering on these props is legal.
